Rock and Roll is NOT Dead

Rock & Roll is NOT dead!

Quite the opposite, I predict that Rock music is about to become a lot more popular.

It is true that Rock music has been in a decade-long (or longer) decline. The glory days of Rock&Roll are no doubt behind us - Elvis, Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin, The Beatles, Pink Floyd, Queen, AC/DC, Guns N Roses, Metallica, Nirvana, etc etc.

Many mourn the loss of their favorite music genre and it's legendary artists and bands.

This is the failing of the digital age: we are no longer creating any new rock heroes. The days of the titans are gone. Music stores are bankrupt, MTV is dead, a world tour no longer means anything when you can watch it on YouTube for free.

Source: Houston Press

The Decline of Recorded Music Sales

Technology and the changes in the music industry are definitely partially to blame for Rock Music's decline, as making money from album/song sales has become increasingly harder. Some would call it the "Napster effect":

Bands and artists have increasingly relied on Tour revenues rather than Album sales. Concerts and live performances is where the money is right now:

Source: http://seatsmart.com/blog/concert-tickets-vs-album-sales/





The "Golden Age" of Rock music is long gone, but an uptrend in Rock music's popularity is already underway. Rock & Roll is NOT dead, and here's why:

1) Gene Simmons (KISS) and the "CAPITULATION BOTTOM"

From my research, I have noticed that major reversals in long-term trends usually coincide with either a "blow-off peak" or a "capitulation bottom". This means that the end and beginning of a major trend is filled with frantic over-excitement (peak) or depressing over-pessimism (bottom).
In other words, when everyone likes something, a peak is near; and when everyone hates something or has no faith in its future, a bottom could be near.

In the case of Rock Music, we may have already seen the "capitulation bottom".

Gene Simmons: 'Rock Is Finally Dead'

In a September 2014 Esquire interview, Gene Simmons (formerly of legendary band, KISS) declared the death of Rock Music.

To be fair, KISS wasn't the best-selling or most-popular band of its time, but Gene Simmons is enough of a Rock icon that his comments drew lots of attention. KISS did, after all, sing the well-known song "Rock and Roll All Nite".

The second I heard Gene Simmons declare Rock Music dead, I instantly thought of the "capitulation bottom". Especially considering his comments garnered a response from other top Rock bands, this was not only a heated and emotionally-charged debate, but potentially a major turning point.

It’s a phrase that gets thrown around a lot. It’s a phrase that gets people riled up. Epic social media arguments start over it. Friendships end over it. It’s an emotionally charged subject for a lot of people.

Source: http://varla.com/rock-and-roll-is-dead/


The Foo Fighters chimed in, "not so fast":

Aerosmith guitarist, Joe Perry:

“I think that that era of rock bands playing to sold-out arenas and selling millions of records in a pop — yeah, that part of it is dead.”

“When we started, being in a rock band was one step away from being an outlaw. No one ever said, ‘Oh good, you’re playing in a rock band, how wonderful!’"

Source: http://ultimateclassicrock.com/joe-perry-gene-simmons-rock-is-dead/ 

Twisted Sister frontman, Dee Snider:

While I have nothing but respect for Gene, he couldn’t be further off the mark. Yes, the rock ‘n’ roll “business model” that helped Kiss (and my band for that matter) achieve fame and fortune is most certainly long dead and buried, but rock ‘n’ roll is alive and well and thriving on social media, in the streets, and in clubs and concert halls all over the world. And the bands playing it are more genuine and heartfelt than ever because they are in it for one reason: the love of rock ‘n’ roll.

Spend some time seeing and listening to these incredible young bands and their rabid fans and you will know that rock ‘n’ roll couldn’t be more alive. Yes, it’s not the same as it was for the first 50 years of rock’s existence, but the fire definitely still burns.

Source: Dee Snider Responds to Gene Simmons' 'Rock is Dead' Claim

Even CNN discussed and acknowledged it:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/08/showbiz/music/rock-is-dead-gene-simmons-esquire/

See also:
http://www.spin.com/2014/09/gene-simmons-rock-is-dead-foo-fighters-esquire-interview/
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/gene-simmons-rock-is-finally-dead-20140907
http://www.musicthinktank.com/blog/how-technology-killed-rock-and-roll.html
http://www.nme.com/blogs/nme-blogs/why-is-everyone-so-obsessed-with-the-death-of-rocknroll
http://www.aux.tv/2014/01/rock-n-roll-is-dead/
http://www.debate.org/opinions/is-rock-music-dead

2) Rock Stars Are Getting Old, Time for Rebirth

The Rock Music genre is being led by old people.
Unlike pop music, led by the young:

As always, the Grammys were peppered with plenty of promising young music stars, like Best New Artist winner Sam Smith, 22, who also won Song of the Year and Record of the Year; and Best Country Album winner 31-year-old Miranda Lambert. Performers included Beyoncé Knowles, already living legend at 33, with Katy Perry, 30, Rihanna, 26, and Ariana Grande, 21, not far behind. And music's most promising star is, of course, 25-year-old Taylor Swift, who did not need to perform to make her presence felt.

Notice anything about that list of up-and-comers? None them has ever even attempted to strap on a Les Paul and just freakin' rawk out.

Source: http://mashable.com/2015/02/09/millennials-rock-n-roll-old-grammys/#2FSQa7v.VSqQ

When it comes to Rock:

The average age among all the 2015 Grammy nominees in the four rock categories was roughly 46.

Everyone keeps looking at the old-timers and legendary bands for leadership, but it's time for new leadership and new music led by a new generation!

AC/DC singer is 67, Paul McCartney is 72, Mick Jagger is 72, Bruce Springsteen is 66, and so on.

Rock & Roll is ready for a revival and rebirth. This doesn't mean that the new Rock will sound exactly like the old Rock Music we're used to, but it is definitely highly influenced by it.

Sure, the music industry might look different today than it did forty years ago, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing...Rock music was reborn once more with the alternative scene in the early nineties. 

 Source: http://www.gibson.com/News-Lifestyle/Battle-of-the-Fans/en-us/Rock-n-Roll-is-NOT-Dead.aspx

The new generation of Rock & Roll will be innovative, exciting, and maybe even wildly popular.


3) New Rock Music is For The Love

The major decline in Rock Music has brought about a positive outcome: With rock music not being the lucrative field it used to be, those who write, play, and perform Rock Music are doing it "for the love of rock and roll". This means more passion, and potentially better quality.

Once the music is forced underground, it narrows the scope of the field. In the end, you’re left with a small percentage of the bands that keep themselves together and keep going. No matter what. Not for a paycheck. Not for fame. They do it for the love of the craft. When you remove quantity, you’re going to be left with quality.

Source:  http://varla.com/rock-and-roll-is-dead/


4) Google Trends Points to Renewed Interest


Though it is clear that the popularity of Rock Music has declined dramatically over the years, it might have already begun to rise. After a long lull, interest in Rock Music may have bottomed.

Looking at Google Trends dating back to 2004 (as far back as it goes), we can see the decline in search for "Rock music". However, after the big drop in interest, it appears that a bottom was formed between 2013-2015:

Just as Gene Simmons declared Rock to be dead, the bottom was actually forming.

Even better, there has recently been a significant rise in interest since 2015, and this may be the beginning of a major long-term uptrend in Rock Music.

Just in case the Google Trends chart doesn't quite show the massive decline in Rock, look at the huge decline in Rock Music (dark green) since the 1970s:

While Rock Music has seen a giant decline, music genres like EDM or Electronic Dance Music have seen a huge rise in popularity:

Moreover, Rock Music is not the only genre that has declined in popularity. Hip Hop and Jazz appear to have declined and Country has been volatile. Pop Music is the only one with an increase.

However, while the declining popularity of Rock and Jazz have been brutal, both seem to have made the turning point within the past year. Both genres' popularity is now trending up, and this could be the beginning of the next uptrend.


Rock Music is Coming Back

One day soon we will see huge headlines about Rock Music, how it came back from the dead, and how enormously popular it is becoming once again. 

The new generation of Rock & Roll is either already here or on its way. 
Most legendary bands are already long gone; some, like AC/DC and Bruce Springsteen are still performing; others, like the Rolling Stones and Guns N Roses have planned comeback tours or special concerts. Regardless, these old-timers were an inspiration to millions and will soon pass the torch to the next wave of Rock Music legends. 

Perhaps right now a giant Rock & Roll festival doesn't sound like it would be such a successful venture. And maybe the glory days of Woodstock 1969 will never be recaptured.
But if Rock & Roll is truly undergoing a period of revival, Woodstock 2019 (50 year anniversary) could be a big hit. 

Perhaps it is exactly during these desperate times for Rock Music that a revival and great progress is made:

The really interesting things in rock ‘n’ roll only seem to happen when almost nobody is paying attention.

Source: http://www.popmatters.com/column/176052-the-state-of-rock/

Remember $2 Gas?

Enjoy the cheap $2 gasoline while you still can!

Due to the collapse in crude oil, gas prices have reached lows not seen since the depth of the Great Recession. But these extreme lows in oil and gas prices won't be here for long.

                                              Gas Prices

Crude oil and gasoline prices have moved largely in unison, both up and down:

Crude Oil vs. Gas

Oil prices are at lows not seen in years, decimated over the past 2 years and crashing by nearly 80 percent to $26/barrel since the ~$110/barrel highs in June 2014.

   Crude Oil Prices

Possible Reasons for the Bear Market in Oil & Commodities

1) Huge oversupply due to more effective drilling technology and domestic self-sufficiency.

2) Slowing economic growth around the world (Europe, China, Brazil, etc), leading to lower energy demand.

3) Deflation, where the prices of nearly all assets fall. Usually accompanied by economic recession and stronger US Dollar ($UUP).

4) Over-speculation in the Energy ($XLE) space, as is apparent by the exposure of energy companies in the Junk Bond market ($HYG) ($JNK).


What's Next?

The magnitude of oil's collapse was far greater than I had expected or even assumed possible. Though I clearly stated my expectations of oil dropping significantly due to the large deflationary forces and slowing global economic growth, I didn't think crude oil would fall by more than 50 percent. Oil was definitely not staying at $100/barrel, but $30/barrel? That's crazy cheap. 

Still, caution must be exercised, as a continued decline is not out of the question.
However, even though oil and energy can continue lower, the largest price drops are already behind us. Oil is a much better investment than most other assets because it has already been crushed, and the bad news is mostly or completely priced-in.

Oil is now "over-hated", as oil prices ($USO) and energy company valuations ($XLE) have been severely (and excessively) cut. Most investors are running away from Energy or are still too afraid to get in.

Contrary to most investors, oil and energy is a major bargain right here.
Now is the time to look at Energy investments.
Now is the time to pick up the scraps left in the wake of oil's collapse. 

There are definitely troubling times and even bankruptcies for some of the energy companies ($CHK, $UPL $LINN, etc.), but it's time to search for the viable companies selling for dirt cheap.
Even if some of your Energy investments get wiped out, some of these companies are golden opportunities for exponential returns (think 300-1000%+).

The outcome of the Oil Recovery and higher energy prices is both positive and negative:

On the positive side, investing in oil and energy is presenting a very rare opportunity to buy at the bottom near 20-year lows.
On the negative side, rising oil prices will result in higher fuel costs. You can probably forget about the extremely cheap $2/gallon Gas prices.

Even worse, those who neglect to invest in Oil and Energy now are likely to lose twice - once by missing the long-term bottom in oil, and once by having to pay more at the pump.

In a few years we will be talking about how low oil & gas prices were.
Oil prices are close to what they were in the 1980s and 1990s.
Now is the time to invest in oil.

The Zombie Trend

Is it not obvious that CNBC & The Walking Dead plagiarized my article?

• I wrote an article about Zombies and the Stock Market / Economy in November 2012. 
• I sent the link to the creator of the TV show, AMC's "The Walking Dead", Robert Kirkman.
• I was (separately from this) interviewed by CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.
• A few months later, Robert Kirkman is on CNBC with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the connection between Zombies and the Stock Market / Economy.  

Watch the short video, then read my article, and tell me this isn't a bit "suspicious".


November 2012:
















March 2013:

See CNBC: “‘Walking Dead’: Zombies Thrive on Weak Economy”

In November 2012 I wrote the article below, titled "Investing In Zombies".
I had been a big fan of zombie movies for years, and I knew zombies were about to get very popular again.

Until then, zombie fans like myself were largely disappointed by the lack of both quantity and quality when it came to zombie movies. It was rare to see a well-written, well-produced, well-received zombie movie; most were low-budget films that only true zombie fans could even tolerate. Of course, there are the "zombie classics" and other favorite zombies movies, but they are few in comparison to the multitude of zombie movies and TV shows that have been released over the past few years.

We have just lived through and witnessed one of the biggest waves of zombie popularity in history, perhaps for years to come. #1 watched TV shows, mega-studio films, zombie costumes, zombie 5k races, zombie economies, zombie video games, etc etc.
There is still some time left in this "zombie trend", but the highest peaks of popularity are already behind us.

We've seen the massive popularity of Vampires, then Zombies. What's next? Ghosts? Aliens? Werewolves? Evil Robots?



Investing In Zombies
Originally published: November 13, 2012

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/763684-chartprophet/1254481-investing-in-zombies

Many stocks and companies may be at the end of an uptrend and are becoming "dead money", but investing in the "living dead" and the strengthening popularity of the Zombie theme could be a profitable opportunity.

With The Walking Dead as this fall's most popular television series, and with AMC Networks (NASDAQ:AMCX) reporting earnings this Thursday November 7th, is it a good investment? Moreover, with Viacom (NASDAQ:VIA) behind a potential blockbuster hit zombie movie coming out in 2013, and with Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) soon releasing two hugely profitable zombie games, is now the time to buy?

Below, I will make the case for (1) Why zombies are the new craze, (2) How they are replacing vampires as the more popular theme, and (3) What companies you can invest in to profit from the growing trend.

Why Zombies?

Zombies represent how the world economy has been behaving and how a lot of people currently feel about the future. Zombies are slow, mindless, physically-decaying, and brutal beings with no long-term goals, no productivity, no sign of recovery, and no desires other than eating human flesh. Unfortunately, the economy and stock markets have behaved very similarly over the past 10+ years, or "Lost Decade": We've seen huge ups and downs, instability, massive turmoil, increasing risks and dangers, unfathomable events, and the collapse of much of life as we once knew it. In fact, the similarities have been so staggering that we've seen the emergence of some very popular nicknames: "zombie economy", "zombie banks", and "zombie debt" among others.

Obviously many things have greatly improved over the years, but all the volatility and chaos of multiple recessions and never-ending uncertainty have truly eaten away at people's confidence. Most investors just can't understand what's happening. Even the top business executives, politicians, fund managers, and experts have no clue what to do!

In a zombie economy, there is a self-perpetuating sense of doom - the feeling that there is no solution; that the sickness is unstoppable and the predator unkillable; the fear that even those in command have little idea how to fix things.

CNBC - Why_Zombies_Are_Taking_Over_the_Economy

So why zombies? Because all of the fear, dread, and impending doom that people are feeling about the economy or personal safety. The solutions seem to escape us, the situation doesn't appear to be improving, and it feels as if everyone is either fighting to survive or preying on the weak. To many, the world feels like a harsh, dangerous place with a bleak future; it is precisely when people feel this fearful or discouraged that zombies have the most appeal.

Zombies vs. Vampires: The Triumph of the Zombie

Unlike the decaying, numb, and senseless zombie, the vampire stands for beauty, immortality, and conscious pursuit of power (though it still uses evil methods to get there). The positive characteristics of a vampire are therefore a lot more appealing when people are feeling more positively about themselves or their situation.

It is no surprise then that the two most popular vampire television shows (Buffy The Vampire Slayer and HBO's True Blood) and the most popular vampire novels and movies (Twilight) of the past 20 years were started during very positive periods for the economy.Buffy came out in 1997, as the US was at the height of its most impressive bull market ever; True Blood was developed in late 2005, near the height of the housing bubble (it made its television premiere during the recession in September 2008, but only months after the all-time peak in stocks); and the Twilight novel was released in 2005, also near the height of the housing bubble (the massively successful movies were released in 2008-2011, but well after the novels had already become best-sellers).

According to a Google books (NASDAQ:GOOG) search comparing the frequency of the words "zombies" and "vampires" in books, "vampires" have been the clear winner by far from 1940 to 2008, with an increasingly sharper rise since around 1987:

But I am happy say that vampire popularity has finally peaked. With the most successful books, shows, and movies now behind us, vampires can no longer outdo themselves. Yes, they will one day come back in a huge way, but the cycle is on its way down. When 13-year-old girls become completely obsessed with vampires (as they have with Twilight), the trend is over. It is now time for zombies to take control.

A simple indication of the soaring triumph of zombies over vampires is visible in a Google Trends search:

When we plot all of the search volume for the terms "zombies" and "vampires" since 2004, we can see how zombies have completely dominated since late 2008. While "vampires" was the more popular term for most of 2004-2008, "zombies" has skyrocketed upward since late 2008 and has massively led "vampires" since early 2009. We can see the big increase in "vampires" due to the Twilight success in 2010, but "zombies" is the runaway winner.

Rising Zombie Popularity

The growing popularity and success of the zombie theme is evident in best-selling comics and books, a top-rated television show, an upcoming blockbuster movie, zombie video games, a 5k "zombie race", and even a warning from the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention - a governmental organization) about a "zombie apocalypse".

Perhaps the clearest sign of the growing zombie popularity is the hugely successful television show, The Walking Dead. The show, already into its third season, is so popular that its premiere in October 2012 was the highest-rated entertainment series this fall. It was already the most successful cable drama of all-time, but the Walking Dead premiere was even more popular than all of the big broadcast entertainment shows including ABC'sModern Family. Only football and live sports are more popular than zombies right now.

The Walking Dead television series is based on the bestselling comics written by Robert Kirkman. The books have been selling so well that (as of November 6, 2012) Kirkman is #26 in Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) top 100 authors! He has probably been even higher up.

Moreover, he currently has two books in Amazon's top 100 bestseller list:

Before The Walking Dead, author Max Brooks published two bestselling books about zombies - The Zombie Survival Guide (2003) and World War Z (2006).

Brooks' books have been so popular that Brad Pitt's production company, Plan B Entertainment, secured the movie rights in 2007. Brad Pitt will star in World War Z (set to release on June 21, 2013), with The Zombie Survival Guide set for a 2014 release.

We are yet to find out if the movies are even good, but with superstar actor Brad Pitt starring in an upcoming zombie movie, we can safely say that the zombie theme is going strong and may have much more room to go.

 

In fact, the number of zombie movies released each year has soared since 2000:

And in comparison to the stock market:

Source: Wired Magazine

Such rapid growth in popularity is a bit disconcerting, but aside from The Walking Dead we are yet to see true blockbusters in the zombie category in this cycle. We've seen big success in zombie-like movies such as Resident Evil (2002), 28 Days Later (2002), and I Am Legend (2007), but I think we are still not at the peak-level vampire equivalents likeTwilight and True Blood.

Running away from zombies has even become a fun 5k race, as participants run and scale an obstacle course while avoiding the zombies that attempt to take their life, or in this case the flags on their belts:

runforyourlives.com

Even the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (NASDAQ:CDC) warned about a "zombie apocalypse". In a shocking public campaign by a governmental organization, the CDC urged people to be prepared for zombies. Why?

"If you are generally well equipped to deal with a zombie apocalypse you will be prepared for a hurricane, pandemic, earthquake, or terrorist attack." So please log on, get a kit, make a plan, and be prepared!

-Dr. Ali Khan, CDC Director

CDC.gov

How To Invest

Zombies have been estimated to be worth over $5 billion to the economy. Between movies, video games, television, comics, books, novels, Halloween costumes, merchandise, and other items, the zombie category is both far-reaching and very lucrative. So with zombies probably getting even more popular in the next few years, here is how you can cash in:

1. Zombie TV: The Walking Dead. Perhaps the most popular within the zombie theme is the #1 show The Walking Dead. Already the top-rated entertainment series on TV this fall, the air-time for commercials during the show have been fetching between $200,000 and $375,000 - more than the top primetime shows. The biggest winner from this is AMC Networks , the network that owns the AMC, IFC, and Sundance channels. AMC goes well beyond zombies, with IFC and Sundance being the top independent film channels. Even more, AMC also features top shows Mad Men andBreaking Bad.

Those who would like to profit from The Walking Dead can look at AMC Networks as a potential investment. However, while its shows have been hugely successful and its ads have been selling for a lot of money, AMC Networks is not necessarily a strong buy. The company has a $3.5 billion market cap, decent growth numbers, and very strong future catalysts; but its PE ratio is relatively high at 22.5, it has a lot of debt ($2.28 billion), and its stock has already seen a nice run in the past four months.

AMC is reporting earnings on Thursday November 8th, which could send the stock price up even more. AMC could benefit from the $700 million settlement that it won together with Cablevision (NYSE:CVC) against Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), when Dish removed AMC's channels from its service. However, because the stock price is already at the top of the upward sloping "channel" seen in the chart above, together with minor divergence in the Relative Strength (RSI), I'd rather be more cautious here and see what comes of earnings. A small position would be smarter here, but waiting for a pullback could prove to be safer and more profitable.

2. Zombie Movies: World War Z. With Brad Pitt starring in the upcoming movie World War Z, betting on the potential blockbuster hit could be a very smart move in anticipation. Unlike The Walking Dead which is already a big hit and may already be factored into AMC's stock price, betting on World War Z now will make you one of the first to do so.

So how do you do it? World War Z will be distributed by Paramount Pictures, a subsidiary of Viacom . Investing in Viacom, then, could be the best way to profit from a potential future zombie hit - especially when it stars Brad Pitt. Viacom is a powerhouse, and runs MTV, VH1, Nickelodeon, CMT, BET, and Comedy Central. There are obviously a lot of good things going for it, then.

On a weekly chart, Viacom looks a bit dangerous. It has sharply reversed down from a recent peak, it is far above its 200-day moving average at $40.64, and its relative strength (RSI) and momentum (MACD) indicators are still pointing down:

On a daily chart, however, Viacom looks like it is approaching a pretty good buying opportunity after sharply falling from over $57 to $50 in just a month. The relative strength and momentum indicators are still negative, but for those looking to buy, $50 and $47-48 are pretty good low-risk buying opportunities at support. Viacom also pays a 2% dividend.

3. Zombie Video Games: Call of Duty and The Walking Dead. The best way to profit from the zombie genre is probably through the gaming industry. Luckily, there is one company that is far and beyond the number one force behind the zombie games.

Activision Blizzard is THE player here. Not only is Activision Blizzard behind the bestselling games World of Warcraft, The James Bond series, The Amazing Spiderman, and the upcoming Diablo and Starcraft, but ATVI is the company behind the Call of Duty series and the upcoming The Walking Dead video game.

Call of Duty has been one of the top video game series of all-time, and since 2009 has included a "zombie feature". Black Ops II will be coming out on November 13, 2012 and is expected to be a top-seller. Even more, Activision is expecting the release of The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct in 2013. Both of these games combined spell major profits for Activision .

Activision looks pretty good financially, with a $12.32 billion market cap, a 15.8 trailing PE, $3.19 billion in cash ($2.87 per share), zero debt, and a 1.6% dividend.

When it comes to the charts, there is both some opportunity and some risk. In the long-term chart, we can clearly see ATVI's massive run since 2000. In 2008 it took a very big hit, losing over 50 percent of its value. Since then, it's been in a sideways trend and appears to be in the midst of choosing a direction. It may have broken below its long-term uptrend, but $10 and then $8 should be decent support levels.

The daily chart looks a bit better. Though we are still below the 50 and 200-day moving averages, it appears that ATVI could have bottomed for now near $10.80 and may begin a new uptrend. The momentum is diverging and signaling more positive price movement ahead. If prices can break above the 200-day moving average and the downward-sloping trendline near $12, ATVI looks very good.

Conclusion

With the massively growing popularity of zombies, and their increasing success over the vampire theme in recent months, investing in zombie-related companies could be highly profitable.

I personally have been a huge fan of zombies and apocalyptic movies almost my entire life. Is it not fun and exciting to imagine worst-case scenarios and how you would find a way to escape or survive? Maybe it's just me, but I think that playing out multiple situations, and mentally planning what you would do, applies to much more than just escaping zombies or avoiding a worldwide pandemic. In reality, the ability to be well-prepared for all kinds of scenarios could help improve your relationships, protect your investments, and even save your life!

Watch your back, protect your investments, and buy companies that benefit from the zombie craze. I think we're only in the early to middle stage of the Mania Phase in zombies.